SWING STATES - HOW TRUMP LOST THEM IN 2020

This following two tables show the eight states where the margin of difference were the least in the presidential election of 2016 and 2020.

In 2020, five of the about eight states, namely Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan switched voting for Democratic Party from Republican Party.

Americans are about evenly divided in their support of the two main political parties. So,

they must seek advantage from the structure of the election. It is noticeable that President Biden's success had to do with his winning four of the states with the least margin.

In the U.S., federal elections are frequent and follow fixed schedules, presidential elections every four years with mid-term elections in between. That means elections are held every two years. In 2020, presidential and congressional elections, $14.4 billion was spent. With huge amount of money and frequency, political professionals have a full-time job. It is not hard to imagine that issues are raised, amplified and sensationalized by their involvement.

With President Biden pulling out of the contest and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, former President Trump now face a younger and female contestant. The dynamics of the election have changed. Democratic platform will be clearer af the partu convention in August 19 in Chicago.

Politics in U.S. affects practically everyone in the world. More posts on this subject will follow.

US PRESIDENT BIDEN DROPS OUT OF HIS RACE FOR RE-ELECTION

Presiden Biden has just announced to "stand down" from his campaign for re-eleection, endorsing vice president Kamala Harris as the new candidate. But final decision is made by the party electorates at the Democrat Convention in Chicago on Aug 19-22.

The most likely candidates mentioned are:

Kamala Harris, vice-president

Gavin Newsom, governor of California

Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan.

Senior Democrats are meeting on this new deveopment.

This has changed the dynamics of the coming presidential election. The are report that the Republicans have started to consider the possbility of Trump v Harris campaign. But much will depend on Democrat's choise.

UK Election: Labour won with disproportionate seats

 In the U.K. general election on July 4, the Labour Party regained power after failing to get it back in the 2019 general election.  The results are shown in the table below.

In 2019, Labour’s share of votes was 32.1%, its share of seats was 31%. In 2024, Its share of votes was 33.7%, but its share of seats was 63%.  Labour lost power to Conservatives since 2010.  Since then, it was led by three leaders, Ed Miliband (2010-2015), Jeremy Corbyn (2015-2020) and Sir Keir Starmer (since 2020 to present.)

In 2019, the Conservative share of votes was 43.6%, its share of seats was 56.1%. In 2024, its share of votes was 23.78%, but its share of seats was 18.6%.  Conservatives were voted into power in 2010, with David Cameron as prime minister.  He resigned after losing in the Brexit referendum in 2016.  Since then, four prime ministers were installed, including Liz Truss’s 44 days term in 2022.  Liz Truss lost her seat in this election.

The Reform UK party did well in 2024, with 13.6% of the votes, but with 0.8% of the seats. Its leader Nigel Farage won a seat in the parliament at this eighth attempt.  He became prominent by champion Brexit, which led the then Conservative Prime Minister Cameron to call for referendum in 2016.  

COMMENTS:

1)      Labour won because its leader since 2020 is a centrist who kicked out left-wing Jeremy Corbyn.  This contrasts with what happened in the recent French elections.

2)      The disproportionate seat gain by the Labour Party, was the result of the U.K.’s first-past-the-post election system. If support for one party – or antipathy toward another – is spread evenly across the country, it does not need to win a large share of the popular vote to win a huge majority of seats in parliament. Conservatives’ loss was Reform UK’s gain.  Commentators expect Labour would just bring in gradual change, even though it has large majority in Common’s seats.  Its constraint is large government debt.

3)      Liz Truss’s short-lived government: According to CNBC, her finance minister “announced a so-called mini-budget which began a turbulent period for U.K. bond markets which balked at the debt-funded tax cut he put forward”.  Truss took Margaret Thatcher as her model, but times have changed.  It is worth noting that before any politicians were able to look at the details of the proposal, the thumbs-down by the bond market sealed her government’s fate.  This is the time when many governments’ finances are stretched so thin that the government’s survival depends on the money men.   It adds a new meaning to money politics.

4)      Just formed Reform UK’s participation in this election caused Conservatives heavy loss.   Reform UK is led by Nigel Farage, a far-right populist politician who campaigned for Brexit.   Prime Minister Sunak called the election so suddenly partly to catch Farage by surprise as he was so involved in Trump’s election.  In the end, it was Sunak who was surprised when Farage changed his mind to take part in the general election.  Farage, a friend of Donald Trump, appeared in Trump’s rally.  Is this foreign interference in the U.S. election?

5)      The Conservative party was not prepared for the election and created a mess for themselves.  Politico.eu has a good article on this mess. This is the link to the article. https://www.politico.eu/article/tory-election-campaign-timeline-rishi-sunak-conservative-party-uk-election/

6)      The article mentioned “Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons and a former Conservative leadership contender…. had also worked for the George Bush campaign in the U.S. in 2000 and retains experienced Republican contacts in Washington…. Mordaunt offered Sunak to draw on those contacts for the upcoming election…. Sunak thanked Mordaunt for the offer.  She never heard anything about it.”  Foreign election interference has been going on under the radar, abate by a friendly nation.